 Over on Bernie?s online forum, there is talk of a potential trade between the Cardinals and Dodgers. This isn?t one of those ?the Cards should trade Eckstein and Brad Thompson for Brad Penny and Nomar? threads started by Sal in South City, it?s a seemingly legit possibility authored by our esteemed Post-Dispatch columnist.
The Deal: Cards trade 3B Scott Rolen to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Wilson Betemit and one of two young outfielders: Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp. Whether this rumor has legs to it or Bernie simply felt like stirring the pot (the latter highly unlikely), we?re going to pretend this trade occurs for the sake of conversation.
Here?s the breakdown for both teams:
First, we?ll look at the ?07 PECOTA projections for what the Cards could be getting via our Baseball Prospectus insider, Josh Bacott (age in parenthesis)?
Betemit, Wilson (25) - 100H, 53R, 16HR, 56RBI, .257 BA, .325OBP, .437 SLG
Ethier, Andre (25) - 112H, 61R, 13HR, 55RBI, .289 BA, .356OBP, .462SLG
Kemp, Matt (22) - 165H, 91R, 24HR, 86RBI, .295BA, .346OBP, .507SLG
It?s important to note that Kemp?s projections are based off a small sample-sized 154 at-bats in 2006. If nothing else, Kemp?s projections show he has potential for power and RBI, something the ?07 Cardinals have been, how do I say this politely? LACKING, thus far. The other 2 trade possibilities don?t add up to much production overall.
Next, let?s look at the salaries?
Betemit ?07 cost - $405,000
Ethier ?07 cost - $387,500
Kemp ?07 cost - $383,000
Rolen ?07 cost - $12,311,637
Wow; that?s quite a disparity. The idea of starting Betemit (currently hitting .183) at 3B isn?t a long-term solution. At best, he?d be the Cards answer to Abraham Nunez. He's never played in more than 115 games and has hit above .300 just once in his career. All told, this deal is predicated on a youth movement and dumping of salary (hello? captain obvious).
Finally, let?s consider the intangibles. The only potential free agent 3B worth two licks (no idea what that phrase means) is Mike Lowell, he of the Red Sox and 34 years of age Mike Lowell. Also, assuming this trade happens, does it mean LaRussa and Rolen can?t get along? If that?s the case, does it mean LaRussa plans on returning after the season?
I only know one thing for certain: if Wilson Betemit plays for the Cardinals, he will benefit St. Louis much more than Scott Rolen, at least on Sunday nights. As we all know, ESPN?s John Miller loves him a good Hispanic name. |
